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            Upcoming imaging surveys will allow for high signal-to-noise measurements of galaxy clustering at small scales. In this work, we present the results of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) bias challenge, the goal of which is to compare the performance of different nonlinear galaxy bias models in the context of LSST Year 10 (Y10) data. Specifically, we compare two perturbative approaches, Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) and Eulerian perturbation theory (EPT) to two variants of Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT), with our fiducial implementation of these models including terms up to second order in the bias expansion as well as nonlocal bias and deviations from Poissonian stochasticity. We consider a variety of different simulated galaxy samples and test the performance of the bias models in a tomographic joint analysis of LSST-Y10-like galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy-lensing and cosmic shear. We find both HEFT methods as well as LPT and EPT combined with non-perturbative predictions for the matter power spectrum to yield unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters up to at least a maximal scale ofkmax = 0.4 Mpc-1for all samples considered, even in the presence of assembly bias. While we find that we can reduce the complexity of the bias model for HEFT without compromising fit accuracy, this is not generally the case for the perturbative models. We find significant detections of non-Poissonian stochasticity in all cases considered, and our analysis shows evidence that small-scale galaxy clustering predominantly improves constraints on galaxy bias rather than cosmological parameters. These results therefore suggest that the systematic uncertainties associated with current nonlinear bias models are likely to be subdominant compared to other sources of error for tomographic analyses of upcoming photometric surveys, which bodes well for future galaxy clustering analyses using these high signal-to-noise data.more » « less
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            null (Ed.)ABSTRACT We compare predictions for galaxy–galaxy lensing profiles and clustering from the Henriques et al. public version of the Munich semi-analytical model (SAM) of galaxy formation and the IllustrisTNG suite, primarily TNG300, with observations from KiDS + GAMA and SDSS-DR7 using four different selection functions for the lenses (stellar mass, stellar mass and group membership, stellar mass and isolation criteria, and stellar mass and colour). We find that this version of the SAM does not agree well with the current data for stellar mass-only lenses with $$M_\ast \gt 10^{11}\, \mathrm{ M}_\odot$$. By decreasing the merger time for satellite galaxies as well as reducing the radio-mode active galactic nucleus accretion efficiency in the SAM, we obtain better agreement, both for the lensing and the clustering, at the high-mass end. We show that the new model is consistent with the signals for central galaxies presented in Velliscig et al. Turning to the hydrodynamical simulation, TNG300 produces good lensing predictions, both for stellar mass-only (χ2 = 1.81 compared to χ2 = 7.79 for the SAM) and locally brightest galaxy samples (χ2 = 3.80 compared to χ2 = 5.01). With added dust corrections to the colours it matches the SDSS clustering signal well for red low-mass galaxies. We find that both the SAMs and TNG300 predict $$\sim 50\, {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ excessive lensing signals for intermediate-mass red galaxies with 10.2 < log10M*[M⊙] < 11.2 at $$r \approx 0.6\, h^{-1}\, \text{Mpc}$$, which require further theoretical development.more » « less
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